The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptation Mechanisms: The Case of Egypt
Keywords:
Agriculture; Climate Change; Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ARDL) Adaptation Mechanisms; Egypt.
Abstract
Climate change has adverse effect on agricultural production in developing countries, especially in those with low incomes and a high rate of hunger and poverty. Although the agricultural sector will be costly to adapt to climate change, it is essential to achieving food security. This study aims to analysis the impact of climate change on agriculture and adaptation mechanisms in Egypt during the period (1980:2018) using Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ARDL). The empirical results inferred that most of the variables are insignificant in the short-run. In the long run, the empirical results revealed that the impact of climate change on agricultural production, including the emissions of carbon dioxide and temperature, is positive. Hence, even if the impact of the rain variable is negative, but its value is low, and then Egypt has not entered a critical or dangerous stage. On the other hand, the results indicated that the research directed at increasing productivity and developing new varieties more compatible with climate changes is insufficient. Even if the research is available, the Egyptian farmer does not use it due to lack of agricultural Extension. For mechanical and chemical technology effect, the long-run coefficient of Fertilizers is insignificant. The long-run coefficient of the number of tractors is negative and significant, while rural population coefficient is positive and significant. This means that Egyptian agriculture is more dependent on manpower than mechanical technology
References
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Mustafa, M., Mayes, S., and Massawe, F. (2019) "Crop Diversification through a Wider Use of Underutilised Crops: A Strategy to Ensure Food and Nutrition Security in the Face of Climate Change" A. Sarkar et al. (eds.), Sustainable Solutions for Food Security, pp: 125-149 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77878-5_7
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Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R., (1999). "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621-634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
Rehman, A., Ozturk, I., and Zhang D. (2019) "The Causal Connection between CO2 Emissions andAgricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach", applied sciences, 9, (1692), pp:2-16. doi:10.3390/app9081692
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Yassin, L.,(2018)" Climate change and food security in Egypt" Master’s thesis, American University in Cairo. https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/315
Abd-Elmabod, S., Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., et.al. (2020)."Climate change impacts on agricultural suitability and yield reduction in a Mediterranean region", Geoderma, 374, pp: 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114453
Abdel Monem, M., El Ghandour, I. (2020) Role of Science, Technology and Innovation in Addressing Climate Change Challenges in Egypt E.-S. E. Omran and A.M. Negm (eds.), Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in Egypt, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, pp 59:79. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41629-4_4
Abd El Mowla, K. and Abd El Aziz, H.,(2020) "Economic analysis of climate-smart Agriculture in Egypt", Egypt Journal Agricultural Research., 98 (1), pp:52-63. https://dx.doi.org/10.21608/ejar.2020.101423
Ahmed, Y., Delin, H., Belford, C., Shaker, V., and Abdelrahaman, n. (2020) " An estimate of the potential economic impacts of climate change on Egypt’s agriculture: a multi-market model approach", Climate and Development, DOI:10.1080/17565529.2020.1754156
Ali, M., Ibrahim, M., El baroudy, A., et al. (2020)" Climate change impact and adaptation on wheat yield, water use and water use efficiency at North Nile Delta", Front. Earth Sci., 14(3): 522–536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-019-0806-4
Al-Mulali, U., Solarin, S.A., Ozturk I., 2016, Investing The Presence Of Environmental Kuznets Cruve Hypothesis In Kenya: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach, Nat Hazard Springer, (80), pp1729-1747. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2050-x
Asumadu-Sarkodie, S., Owusu,P., (2016)."The relationship between carbon dioxide and agriculture in Ghana: a comparison of VECM and ARDL model", Environmental Science Pollution Research, 23:10968–10982. DOI 10.1007/s11356-016-6252-x
Chandio, A., Jiang, Y., Rehman, A., and Rauf, A. (2020a) "Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: empirical evidence from China". International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 201-221. DOI 10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2019-0026
Chandio, A., Jiang, Y., Rauf, A., Ahmad, F., and Amin, W.(2020b) "Assessment of Formal Credit and Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Production in Pakistan: A Time Series ARDL Modeling Approach" Sustainability, 12, (5241),pp2-19 doi:10.3390/su12135241
Eid, H., El-Marsafawy, S., Ouda, S.,(2007) "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian Approach", The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 4293. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/7485
Elbasiouny,H., Elbehiry, F.,(2020) Rice Production in Egypt: The Challenges of Climate Change and Water Deficiency E.-S. E. Omran and A.M. Negm (eds.), Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in Egypt, pp295:319https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41629-4_14
El Massah,S., Omran, G. (2014). "Would Climate Change Affect the Imports of Cereals? The Case of Egypt, "Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-40455-9_61-2
FAO. (2018). The state of agricultural: commodity markets: Agricultural trade, climate change and food security,Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. https://www.fao.org/publications/soco/2018/en/
FAO. (2016).The State of Food And Agriculture: climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. https://www.fao.org/publications/sofa/2016/en/
Farag, A. El-Moula, M., Maze, M., El- Gendy, R., Radwan, H., (2018). "Carbon footprint for wheat and corn under Egyptian Conditions, Future of Food: Journal on Food, Agriculture and Society. 6 (2), 41- 54 doi:10.17170/kobra-2018122070
Fawaz, M. ,and Soliman,S., (2016) "Climate Change, Green Economy and its Reflections on Sustainable Agricultural Development in Egypt" the 24 conference of agricultural economists "The Future of Agriculture - The Egyptian in light of local, regional and international changes, The Egyptian Association for Agricultural Economics, , pp: 324-295.
Gelil, I.,(2014) "History Of Climate Change Negotiations And The Arab Countries: The Case of Egypt", Research Report, the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut.
Hamada, Y. (2020)." Sustainable Food Security via Climate–Smart Agriculture", Indian Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp: 127-146. http://www.arc.sci.eg/Pub_Details.aspx?OrgID=9&PUB_ID=424886&lang=en
Hashem, E. (2020). "The Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security- Case Study: Egypt". Journal of Economics and Business, Vol.3, No.2, 868-884. DOI: 10.31014/aior.1992.03.02.244
Houngbedji, C and Diaw, A., (2018)." Analysis of Climate Change Effect on AgriculturalProduction in Benin", Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics &Sociology, 24(4), pp: 1-12. DOI: 10.9734/AJAEES/2018/40522
IPCC (2007).Intergovernmental panel on climate change fourth assessment report: climate change 2007, Synthesis report, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
Khalil A. and Omran, F.,(2018)." Impact of climate change on Temperature Humidity Index Values in Egypt" International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 4 (1), pp: 1059-1064. https://www.academia.edu/37069715/Impact_of_climate_change_on_Temperature_Humidity_Index_Values_in_Egypt
Khedr, M (2019), "Challenges and Issues in Water, Climate Change, and Food Security in Egypt" Negm, A. (Ed.) Conventional Water Resources and Agriculture in Egypt, Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, pp229-244DOI 10.1007/698_2017_67,
Koondhar, M., Li, H., Wang, H., Bold, S., and Kong, R.(2020) "Looking back over the past two decades on the nexus between air pollution, energy consumption, and agricultural productivity in China: a qualitative analysis based on the ARDL bounds testing model" Environmental Science and Pollution Research .27:13575–13589 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07501-z
Mahmoud, M. (2019), "Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in Egypt", Negm, A. (Ed.) Conventional Water Resources and Agriculture in Egypt, Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, pp213-227 DOI 10.1007/698_2017_48,
Mahrous, W., (2018) "Dynamic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Yield in Egypt: An ARDL Model", Journal of Economic & Financial Research. Vol.5 (1), pp: 886-908. https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/article/55216
Ministry of Environment (2020).Egypt National Environmental, Economic and Development Study (NEEDS) for Climate Change : under the United Nation framework convention on climate change, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency.
Ministry of Environment (2018). Report to the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency.
Ministry of Environment (2010).Egypt state of the Environmental report 2009, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency.
Mohamed, N (2019). "Egyptian Food Insecurity under Water Shortage and Its Socioeconomic Impacts" Negm, A. (Ed.) Conventional Water Resources and Agriculture in Egypt, Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, pp245-273. DOI 10.1007/698_2018_239
Mustafa, M., Mayes, S., and Massawe, F. (2019) "Crop Diversification through a Wider Use of Underutilised Crops: A Strategy to Ensure Food and Nutrition Security in the Face of Climate Change" A. Sarkar et al. (eds.), Sustainable Solutions for Food Security, pp: 125-149 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77878-5_7
Ouraich, I. & Tyner, W., (2014) Climate change impacts on Moroccan agriculture and the whole economy, World Institute for Development Economics Research, Working Paper 2014/083. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2014/804-9
Pereira, L. (2017)"Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Africa", Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science .Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.292
Pesaran, M.H., y. Shin and R.J. Smith (2001)" Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relations" Journal of applied econometric. Vol. 16:no.3, pp289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R., (1999). "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621-634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
Rehman, A., Ozturk, I., and Zhang D. (2019) "The Causal Connection between CO2 Emissions andAgricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach", applied sciences, 9, (1692), pp:2-16. doi:10.3390/app9081692
Strzepek, K., Yates , D.Yohe, G., Tol,R. ,and Mader,N. (2001) Constructing not implausible: climate and Economic Scenarios For Egypt, Integrated Assessment (2),P:139-157 http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1013387619362
Taha, A., Zohry, A.,(2018) "Adaptation of Sugarcane National Production in Egypt To Climate Change", Egypt Journal of Applied Science 33 (5),pp 203-218. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342159538_ADAPTATION_OF_SUGARCANE_NATIONAL_PRODUCTION_IN_EGYPT_TO_CLIMATE_CHANGE
Wang, J., Vanga, S., Saxena, R., Orsat, V., and Raghavan, V. (2018) "Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops", Climate, Vol. 6(41), pp: 2-19. doi:10.3390/cli6020041
Yassin, L.,(2018)" Climate change and food security in Egypt" Master’s thesis, American University in Cairo. https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/315
Published
2022-06-29
How to Cite
Mahmoud Sayed Agbo, H. (2022). The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptation Mechanisms: The Case of Egypt. Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, 23(1), 119-133. https://doi.org/10.54609/reaser.v23i1.133
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